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November 01, 2005
Observations : Visions of the future
I read a lot of science fiction (and even some fantasy). At their best, these genres provide the author the ability to create situations which, while not strictly realistic, put the points the author wants to make in sharp relief. Doing that in the context of "the real world" is much trickier as the reader brings a lot more of their own biases and baggage to the story.
I also find the various "visions of the future" found in science fiction to be interesting. While sci-fi has a rather poor track record of getting the big trends right, I think the predictions tell us a lot about the kinds of questions people were (and are) asking themselves. Currently I see two trends in sci-fi – singularity and tribalism.
"The singularity" is the ultimate form of Alvin Toffler's "Future Shock". The idea is that we will shortly face such rapid social changes because of key technologies that it is impossible for us to understand what life will be like afterwards – it will be like trying to see past the event horizon of a black hole or to determine what existed before the big bang (both "singularities" in the mathematical sense). The technologies which will bring this about are either human genetic manipulation – how can you talk about the future of human society when we aren't really human any more; or the ability to "download" our consciousnesses into computers (and perhaps back) - creating computer programs that are "us" in every respect, only immortal (the ultimate transition from atoms to bits).
Ignoring for the moment the plausibility and timing of humanity achieving such a singularity – what does it say about society now, today, that people are even contemplating this as our future? Is this some expression of anxiety that the human race loosing its humanity? (Is about ability to instantly see the latest tragedies around the world driving us to despair?) Or is it an expression of hope that we will one day transcend human nature? Or is it simply that in a society that believes it has killed god, that we must now remake ourselves in his image?
The other trend I see repeated by sci-fi authors is the collapse of the nation state and the rise of a new, technologically mediated, tribalism. Just as "atoms" are giving way to "bits" in society today (information is becoming more important that the physical forms used to convey that information); in the same way (it is proposed), geography must give way to community. Why (it is asked) must nations be associated with physical locations? Isn't that just as foolish as maintaining the association between a song and a disk of plastic? In a world with rapid global communication, why do you need to live near the collection of people you are governed with? The prediction then is that geographical nation states will decline in power, becoming mere service providers to a collection of tribes which know no geographic boundaries. People will form associations with other like-minded people around the world, and these associations will hold the power, not geographic governments.
Again, ignoring the question of how such a transition would take place or if such a system would be stable, what does it say that these ideas are being proposed? Is this the ultimate statement of cynicism about the government? Or is it a reflection of cynicism about our own ability to form compromises with each other, assuming that we must eventually fracture? Or is it just a reflection of the positive experience in the internet age of finding that dozen people around the world that share your obscure hobby or peculiar political beliefs?
I have no answers for these questions. I can say for myself that I find the idea of the singularity scary and the idea of neo-tribalism somewhat comforting; and that is likely a reflection of my own need for community. What underlying social trend may be influencing other writers is unclear to me.
Posted by Steven at November 1, 2005 09:43 PM
